Mayweather fights on May 5th

[JD]

Fitz Wrote:

JD Wrote:Going to battle against Mayweather as a shorter, heavy footed, fairly slow, one-handed fighter is a recipe for a white washing.

DLH was taller, had a long quick jab, a lefthook that was one of the best in the business, good handspeed and a great chin / durability. Floyd had to respect to Oscar for the better part of the fight and find a way to tag him from outside range

Judah was a southpaw, which meant Floyd couldn't shoulder roll with him in there and had to fight him more squared up, who had lightning fast hands, and a ridiculous uppercut to go with a savage straight left.

I saw you mentioned Castillo, but that was a smaller Floyd against a bigger Castillo who was also a ton more durable than Cotto, I am not sure I agree that he was slower, plus he is one of our generations great pressure / inside fighters, Cotto is not.

Cotto isn't going to walk Floyd down and pressure him because he is too slow a foot, doesn't go to the body like he used to, and he cannot take the punishment required to do so. Cotto isn't going to counter Floyd because he will eat shot after shot without getting off anything substantive in return because his feet are too heavy.

All that said, just because my logic dictates that this fight is totally uncompetitive doesn't make it so...so I am going to suspend what I deem to be rational thought here for a second and accept that there is a possibility that I am missing something. So what am I missing Fitz? You are a long time fight fan and I respect your opinion, what am I not seeing? How does Cotto have a chance at beating Floyd or even making it a competitive fight in there?

Shorter? Yes

Heavy footed? Yes, he is slow on his feet, but moves well on his feet if that makes sense. Margarito's feet are slow as shit, and at one point, he was the most feared man for Mayweather. Castillo isn't that fleet footed either. Cotto is slow on his feet, but he is able to slide, pivot and turn well. Slow on his feet, but doesn't have bad footwork.

Fairly slow? Only on his feet, I would not consider him slow in the hand department. Is he quicker than Floyd? Absolutely not, but he matched Mosley for speed. Cotto's hand speed I think gets underrated, he just seems slow because of the way he moves, but I don't think he is fairly slow. He did slow down in handspeed inbetween the first Margarito fight until recently, but his last fight, he had some decent speed again.

One handed fighter? He was, but I saw promising signs and he was using his right hand beautifully in his last fight and added that to his arsenal.

I don't know, I think Castillo is slower than Cotto, in the hand department anyways. Neither are that quick on their feet.

You are right about Judah and DLH, they were very relevant reasons you put, but I still think Cotto's style will make Floyd wait a little bit more and I think he may give up some early rounds by Cotto being the more aggressive.
That said, Cotto switches to southpaw as well, and doesn't fight too bad from the southpaw stance. I think he could go through stages as well where he may switch.

I have always thought that the person to beat Mayweather (not saying Cotto is the one, but I really like how he matches up) will probably be someone that people don't expect. That's not my reasoning though, I'm just saying. On paper, it doesn't look like Cotto matches up well, but stylistically, I like it.

I like Cotto in this because I think he has a good mixture of pressure/boxing for Floyd. I think past opponents have been too much pressure, and Floyd loves that, he looks stronger because people are walking into his shots. Cotto applies pressure, but is not too forward.
Much like Cotto's losses, he has fought going backward as the other guy presses forward. Cotto doesn't have a huge tank and fighting backwards doesn't help.
I'm not 100% sure Mayweather walks Cotto down like Margarito and Pacquiao. Will Mayweather stay in front of him, and stand his ground like in the Mosley fight? Yes, I think he will. But I'm not sure if he will make Cotto go back and Mayweather pressing. I think he is more likely to stand his ground and use angles. I think Cotto may be fresher than in past fights because of this.
I just don't think we will see the offensive guy we saw with the Mosley/Hatton/Ortiz fight. I think we will get the more cautious version we saw with DLH/Baldomir/Marquez. Where guys aren't coming out all guns blazing, and Mayweather is opening up and countering with power as the guys move into his shots.
Cotto isn't as reckless and will let his hands go as much as the other guys, and I think Mayweather workrate drops out of this. I can see Cotto winning early rounds on aggression, and Mayweather will come on a bit later.
I think we get a similar structure to the Judah fight, where Mayweather will lose early rounds and come on later.

A couple thoughts...

This Cotto is nowhere near the guy that fought Mosley. He doesn't have the same reflexes, timing, speed, willingness to get hit or instinct...can we agree on that?

Cotto is a one-handed fighter, he has been his whole career, and random use of the right against a one-eyed Margarito does not a two-handed fighter make.

Re-watch Mayweather - Castillo, I don't think you will come back with the notion that JLC was slower than this version of Cotto.

Cotto switching to southpaw would be a disaster, Floyd would jump on him and light him up with lead rights.

Cotto isn't a pressure fighter digging that left hook downstairs anymore, that guy is gone.

The Judah fight looked the way it did because Zab had the faster hands for 6 rounds, fought out of a stance that forced Mayweather out of his comfort zone, and he fought the best 5 rounds of his life. Cotto will be afforded none of those advantages.

If Cotto sits back he will get torn up, if Cotto pressures he will get torn up.

I read everything you wrote there, but I am not coming away with any understanding how Cotto could do it. I honestly do not see one advantage Cotto would have going in, and that even includes things we often give to Floyd's opponents like chin or youth.

Sorry man, I am just not seeing any common ground with you here...but that's why they fight the fights.